Notes & Sources

• Analysis includes only the House districts rated as “Toss-up” by at least two of three of the following: Cook Political Report; Sabato’s Crystal Ball; Inside Elections. Our analysis is updated as these ratings change up to November 2026.  As a fourth rating firm, Decision Desk HQ and the Hill, makes ratings available it will be incorporated in this ranking.

• For purpose of donation recommendations, only races with a Democratic candidate selected, or a Democratic candidate has over 60% of Dem funds raised for the primary, are included in the target analysis. After the Primaries in 2026, more races will be encompassed if they rand in Tightness and Affordabilty.

• Rankings of Affordability of races are based on 2026 funds raised among then rank districts rates “Toss-up” subset by at least 2 of 3 ratings firms.  Affordability is expressed for each district as its total funds raised relative to the average of ranked “Toss-up” districts, (with 100% = the average district’s cost).

• Tightness is measured by the number of expert ratings firms ranking each district as a 2026 “Toss-up” district.  Initially, the universe of “Toss-Up” races will be those with at least 2 of 3 firms designating a district as such.

• The Impact Index is calculated and updated using the ratio of Tightness and Affordability, with the Index value driven higher by both Tightness and Affordability in each district. The rankings and recommendation for donations is based on those races where incremental donations have the potential to affect outcomes due to impacting the tightest, lowest-cost House races in the country.